These projections, covering the period from 2023 to 2057, provide insights into population growth, ageing trends, fertility rates, and migration patterns. They are based on three possible scenarios, depending on different proportions of immigration.
The most striking trend highlighted by the CSO data is the ageing population. The proportion of people aged 65 and over is set to rise hugely. In 2023, it represented 15pc of the overall population. By 2057, this age group is expected to constitute between 27.8 and 31.6 percent of the total, depending on the scenario used. This demographic shift is due to increased life expectancy, which is obviously something positive, and declining birth rates, which instead have serious negative social consequences.
To understand the significance of an ageing population, we need to consider the so-called “older dependency ratio.” This is a measure that compares the number of people aged 65 and over (typically retired) to the number of working-age people (aged 15-64). It indicates how many retirees there are for every 100 working-age individuals. A higher ratio means more retirees relying on fewer working individuals, which can impact economic and social systems.
According to the Central Statistics Office, Ireland’s older dependency ratio is rising dramatically. In 2022, there were approximately 23 retirees for every 100 working-age individuals. By 2057, this number is expected to increase significantly, with projections indicating that there will be about 56 retirees for every 100 working-age people in the worst-case scenario. Even in the best-case scenario, the prediction is still worrying, as there will be 47 pensioners per 100 individuals of working age.
With more people over 65 and fewer workers, there will be growing pressure on public finances. Pensions and healthcare costs are likely to rise, necessitating higher taxes or reallocation of resources. An ageing population will require more healthcare services, long-term care, and support systems, straining existing healthcare infrastructure.
Even the highest level of immigration projected by the CSO would not be sufficient to invert this worrying trend. Ireland’s problem is due to low fertility rates, which have been on a declining trajectory for too long. By 2047, in all possible scenarios envisaged by the CSO expert group, there will be more deaths than births in Ireland.
The Total Fertility Rate is projected to decrease from 1.55 in 2023 to 1.3 by 2038, stabilising at this lower level thereafter. Ideally, it should be above 2 to ensure a balance between births and deaths.
This decline reflects broader European trends. In Ireland, the average age of first-time mothers has increased to 31.7 years in 2021, up from 26 years in 1985. Not only are couples having children at a later age and having fewer children, but the number of women of childbearing age is also falling and it will continue inevitably in that direction, according to the CSO figures.
The projections presented this week by the CSO are extremely worrying but, significantly, there has been no reaction in the political arena. It is no surprise then that we have reached a point of no return.
