Just like in the South, the population of Northern Ireland is ageing rapidly. A recent report from the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) projects that by mid-century there will be one pensioner for every 2.5 people in the workforce compared with one for almost four people of working age now.

NISRA expects the population to peak at around 1.95 million by mid-2033 before going into a very gradual decline. The only thing preventing a steeper decline will be immigration, but net immigration into the North is expected to be small.

However, it is the changing balance between generations, rather than the total population size, that raises the greatest concerns.

A notable milestone is expected by mid-2027 when the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to exceed the number of children aged 0–14. This marks a clear sign of the rapid ageing of Northern Ireland’s population. The number of people aged 85 and over is forecast to more than double over the next 25 years.

While the number of people in the older age groups is relatively easier to predict because anyone who will be aged over 65 by mid-century is already born, future fertility rates, and therefore the number of children being born, are more uncertain.

NISRA presents a range of possible scenarios based on various assumptions, though long-term projections are inherently difficult. The figures in its summary report are based on the assumption that the total fertility rate (TFR), which is now 1.65 in Northern Ireland, will remain constant over the next 50 years. This is already considerably below replacement level fertility which is two children per couple.

However, the figure of 1.65 might be optimistic because fertility rates have been falling faster than predicted almost everywhere. In the Republic of Ireland, for example, the TFR has already dropped to 1.50 and is predicted to fall further. A continued decline in fertility would further accelerate the ageing trend and deepen its impact.

Under a lower-fertility variant, which is more realistic, the ratio of pensioners to those of working-age could easily worsen even more, creating even bigger challenges for public services and economic sustainability. Between 2022 and 2047 (25 years), the number of children aged under 15 is projected to fall by 23pc while the number aged over 65 is projected to rise by 36pc. This is not a healthy situation.

Both in the North and the South we are basically sleepwalking towards a very bad and unprecedented demographic scenario.