The number of children that young couples are planning to have has plunged in the last 10 years in the US, according to new research. The decline is particularly evident among young women. This will worsen the coming demographic crisis.
A Pew Research Center survey finds that adults aged 20 to 39 now expect to have an average of just 1.8 children, considerably below the replacement level of 2.1. In 2013, that figure was 2.3. In truth, given current fertility and marriage trends, the figure will probably end up lower than 1.8.
The decline is most pronounced among women aged 20 to 24. In contrast, there has been little to no change in the number of planned children among women over 35, but then they are approaching the age of completed fertility. Among men, the drop has been more consistent across all age groups. It is not just women who want fewer children.
Education is one influence to influence the desired number of children, but only among women. Women with a college degree plan to have fewer children on average (1.7) than those without a degree (2.2). Among men, education level makes no significant difference.
Another big trend is the shrinking share of young adults who want children at all. In 2012, 93pc of US women aged 20 to 24 had or expected to have at least one child. By 2023, that number had dropped to 66pc. That is a huge drop in a short time. Across all age groups in 2023, 76pc of men and 77pc of women reported having or planning to have at least one child, down from about nine in ten in 2012.
This downward trend has serious demographic implications. Historically, couples tend to have fewer children than they intend. If today’s intended number is already below replacement level, actual fertility will fall even further, accelerating population decline.
A similar trend can be noticed in Ireland. A recent survey by the Irish Examiner found that, when asked if they would like to start a family, 20pc of Irish women interviewed said “definitely not” and 16pc said “unlikely.” Only 51pc expressed a desire to have children.
Financial strain and fertility challenges are significant factors: 21pc reported fertility issues (a feature of leaving it so late to try and have children), while 35pc said they are not in a financial position to raise a child.
Moreover, according to the poll, half of mothers in Ireland would not want a second child.
Unfortunately, the Irish Examiner survey did not explore all the other reasons for the decision not to have children.
Another Pew Research Center survey, for instance, found that lifestyle choice is a predominant factor, especially among adults aged 18 to 49. Over half (57pc) of childless adults under 50 say they simply do not want to have kids. This figure is notably higher than among older adults (ages 50 and above), where only 31pc cite the same reason. This suggests a generational shift toward valuing personal autonomy and lifestyle preferences over traditional expectations of parenthood.
Across both the U.S. and Ireland, young adults are increasingly choosing smaller families, or none at all. While financial and fertility concerns play a role, many are also making a deliberate lifestyle decision to give up parenthood altogether. With intended family sizes already below replacement levels, and actual fertility often lower than plans, these patterns point to a long-term demographic transformation that extends beyond economics, reflecting evolving values, priorities, and definitions of a fulfilling life.
