In many parts of the world today, people are having few children than they want. A new report from Canada confirms this phenomenon. A report from The Iona Institute last week predicts that one in four members of Gen Z will never have a child. An Amarach poll we commissioned finds that average person still wants two or three children and almost no-one wants none.
The Canadian report is from the pro-family think tank, Cardus.
Canada’s fertility rate has fallen to a historic low of 1.25 children per woman, even lower than Ireland’s rate of 1.5. But this is not simply the result of people freely choosing not to have children. When Canadian women are asked about their ideal family size, they say two children on average. Men desire slightly larger families again, with an ideal family size of 2.13 children. This means the fertility crisis is also a crisis of frustrated hopes.
Similarly, in the UK, a report by the Centre for Social Justice, Baby Bust, says that nine in ten young British women still hope to have children, but that the total childlessness rate could rise as high as 30 pc under current fertility patterns. England’s fertility rate is now below 1.5. Again, the issue is not simply that people no longer want children. It is that many are not achieving the family life they hoped for.
The Canadian report also shows significant differences by religion. Non-religious Canadian women tend to desire 1.55 children, while non-religious men desire 1.83. By contrast, Protestant Christian women desire 2.91 children, and Protestant men 2.96. Catholics and Orthodox Christians are also above the non-religious average, with women desiring 2.16 children and men 2.24. Those belonging to other religious traditions report above-average desired family sizes too: 2.28 children for women and 2.23 for men.
An Iona report from last year called ‘Shall the Religious Inherit Ireland?’ also notes that religious people in Ireland want more children than the non-religious. The figures are three children versus two.
Women with conservative views are also more likely to want larger families. Ethnic background matters as well. Canadians of East Asian ancestry have appreciably lower desired family sizes. By contrast, Canadians of African or Middle Eastern ancestry tend to desire more children than the average, at 2.76 and 2.63 children respectively.
Some of the findings challenge common assumptions. Better educated women tend to want more children, according to the survey. This is important because public debate often assumes that education naturally leads women to reject larger families. The reality is more complex.
The obstacles are also revealing. More than half of Canadian women under 35 who would ideally like a bigger family report some kind of financial barrier, but money is not the only issue. Men are more likely than women to identify financial worries, while women report a wider range of concerns connected with childcare, support, and the practical burden of raising children.
This points to a broader lesson. If countries such as Canada, Ireland and Britain want to address falling fertility, they must begin by taking seriously what people themselves say they want and why their desires to have a larger family are not fulfilled.
