When two different questions get quite different results on the same issue it is a good sign that voter intentions on that issue are volatile. Thus it was that a poll by Red C and another one by Millward Brown on the issue of same-sex marriage and conducted within a week of each other got significantly different outcomes.

Here are the two questions. The first is the Red C one conducted on behalf of The Sunday Business Post and published last week. The second is the Millward Brown one published by The Sunday Independent the previous weekend. Which of them do you think resulted in higher support for same-sex marriage?

1. If the referendum was to be held tomorrow would you vote Yes in favour of supporting Same Sex Marriage rights in the constitution or No against recognising Same Sex marriage?

2. A referendum will be held in May to amend the constitution to provide for recognition of Same Sex marriages by the state. Will you vote in favour of or against this amendment?

The first question resulted in significantly higher support. It resulted in 76 percent support for same-sex marriage while the second question resulted in 62 percent support. In each case support for the No side hardly budged but the number of Don’t Knows changed from 9 percent in the case of the Red C poll to 22 percent with the Millward Brown poll.

The moral of this story is, of course, to look at the exact question being asked before judging the result of a poll. The outcome of the May 22 referendum will depend in no small part on the question the public think they are being asked and whether they trust that the Government is asking them the right question or is trying to manipulate them into the ‘right’ answer.