Plunging marriage and birth rates show Ireland is now on the wrong course in very important ways, a new paper [1] from The Iona Institute says.
The paper examines social trends over the last few decades in respect of births, marriage and family overall. Outside of the Covid years, the country’s marriage rate is now at its lowest ever level, and so is Ireland’s fertility rate which has gone far below replacement level.
Marriage rates and fertility rates move in the same direction, either up or down at the same time, even allowing for far more births taking place outside marriage.
What is happening is going to create serious demographic imbalances in a relatively short time period.
Among other things the paper, called ‘On the Wrong Course: Birth, Marriage and Family Trends in Ireland’ shows:
– Births have plunged in every age group except for the over 40s, and the increase in this age group is not nearly enough to compensate for the big fall in other age groups. The overall fertility is now just 1.5 meaning a hundred people can now expect to have 57 only grandchildren in the future. Replacement level fertility is 2.1 children per couple.
– The marriage rate has fallen from 5.2 people per thousand adults annually in 2004, to just 3.8 in 2024. This is below the EU average of 4.0 (as per 2023).
The paper can be found here [2].