The latest Eurostat figures again demonstrate that the continent’s demographics are headed off a cliff. 
According to the latest figures, there has been a slight improvement in the overall total fertility rate (TFR), from 1.47 per woman of childbearing age to 1.6, since 2003.
However, this is still far below the replacement level, which requires an average TFR of 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age.
The problems inherent in this situation are obvious, so obvious that even leading European politicians and policymakers have begun to fret about them. In order to maintain its population, Europe is forced to take in growing numbers of immigrants, putting social harmony at greater risk.
The much-heralded “European Social Model”, based around generous welfare states, is predicated on population growth, rather than population collapse. It is unclear how EU Member States will continue to fund their pension schemes as the number of older people rises and the number of those expected to pay for their pension shrinks.
One of the reasons given for the low birth rate is the lack of affordable childcare in many countries, but the picture is a little more complicated than this. For example, the latest figures show that Ireland’s total fertility rate is 2.07, which is very close to the replacement rate. But Ireland has little enough in the way of subsidised childcare.
In Italy the TFR is 1.4. But Italy actually has a lower rate of female participation in the workplace than Ireland and therefore hardly any subsidised childcare. According to 2006 figures, 45.1 per cent of Italian women work outside the home. The comparable figure for Ireland in 2007 was over 60 per cent.
Overall, however, the twin phenomena of a deliberate decision by couples to have fewer than two children plus increased participation of women in the workplace – often driven to do so by high mortgages – has been one of the main drivers in lowering the fertility rate.
Another phenomenon which may be driving down the fertility rate is the weakening of marriage as a social institution. Rising divorce rates, increased levels of cohabitation and the fact that people are waiting longer and longer before they marry have all contributed to a situation where, in many European countries, marriage is no longer normative.
For example, out of the 10 countries in the world with the highest divorce rates, eight are to be found in the EU.
Children tend to do better in married families, and while there has been a rise in out-of-wedlock births, it seems at least plausible that women would feel more comfortable having and raising children in the greater security provided by marriage.
In terms of policy, a number of countries, notably Italy and France, have introduced pro-natalist policies, often in the form of direct payments to women who have more than one child. These have had mixed success; in France they have help to reverse the decline in fertility somewhat, in Italy, they have yet to have a significant impact.
Perhaps European policymakers ought to look policies to encourage and strengthen marriage if they are serious about tackling the ticking demographic time bomb.
