A new poll in The Irish Independent today shows a clear majority of the public are in favour of same-sex marriage. Sixty-one percent say they back ‘State recognition of same-sex marriages’, with 27 percent opposed. However, this support is likely to be very soft and would change rapidly in a referendum campaign.

For the last few years, there has been almost relentless pro-gay marriage propaganda on TV and radio and in the movies. This is bound to have an effect on public opinion.

But what this election, and past referendum campaigns have shown, once voters begin to focus properly on the arguments for and against something, minds can change very quickly.

At the outset of this election, for example, the gap between Fine Gael and Labour was about 10 points, but the latest poll puts it at about 22 points.

Prior to the first Lisbon treaty referendum the pro-Lisbon position was far ahead in the polls but ended up losing by quite a heavy margin. The second referendum took place against a background of a radically altered economy which was the main reason the Lisbon treaty was finally carried.

In addition, from time to time opinion polls are published showing a clear majority of the public in favour of abortion in certain circumstances. But no politician in this country believes a referendum aimed at permitting abortion, even in seemingly limited circumstances, would pass easily or at all.

So while this poll isn’t exactly comforting, it shouldn’t be taken as the last word either. Far from it.