‘Baby recessions’ in Australia’s biggest cities deepened in 2024 [1] amid sustained cost-of-living pressures, dragging the nation’s birthrate to a near-record low in 2024 of 1.51 children per couple.
Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane each saw declines in the number of children born per woman from 2023 to 2024, according to a preliminary analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics population data.
The analysis also found outer-suburban and regional Australians grew increasingly likely to have more children per person than their inner-city neighbours.
While large metropolis’s saw fertility rates fall further in 2024, the decline was in part offset by increased childbirths in regional centres as young parents pursued jobs and affordable housing in smaller cities.
Overall, the country’s fertility rate, or children born per woman, was 1.51 in 2024, statistically similar to the 1.5 observed in 2023 and well below the rate of 1.8 observed a decade beforehand. Replacement level fertility is 2.1,