The number of long-term residential care beds and home support hours for older people will need to increase by at least 60pc and maybe as much as 94pc, in the next fifteen years, according to the Economic and Social Research Institute.
The projected rise in requirements is driven by both decreasing births and inward migration causing rapid populating ageing.
The research considered three scenarios based on varying assumptions about population growth and ageing.
Each scenario assumed an annual fertility rate of 1.65, well below replacement level of 2.1. They varied in the level of inward migration, between 25,000 to 45,000 annually to 2030, and then 10,000 to 30,00 annually thereafter to 2040. However, the fertility rate is already down to 1.5. Moreover, an expert group of the CSO has projected that the rate will drop to 1.3 by 2037.
Nonetheless, under the assumed scenarios, short stay bed requirements are projected to grow between 72 to 94pc; long stay bed requirements, between 61 to 80pc; and home support hours to grow between 57 to 91pc.
