The start of July has marked “Death Day” as a leading think tank warns that the number of babies born in England and Wales every year will now be outpaced by deaths.

The Centre for Social Justice (CSJ) suggests that the threshold at which deaths first outnumbered births was crossed on July 1st.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) expect 2026/27 to see 584,000 babies born compared to 588,000 deaths.

The CSJ warns that while the nation begins a new demographic era, politicians are asleep at the wheel as the shift accelerates concerning trends in the economy, public services and the nation’s ability to pay the bills.

The think tank also highlights the “tragedy of missing parents” – those dreaming of starting a family and yet unable to do so because of the rising the costs of having children, decline in marriage and scant affordable housing.

The CSJ’s Baby Bust report found that around three million women aged 16 to 45 today are projected not to have children under current trends, translating to 600,000 fewer mothers than if Britain had maintained the fertility patterns of their grandparents’ generation.

This is despite demographers consistently finding that the two-child family remains the aspiration in Britain.