A population decline of 11.7pc [1] is expected to hit the countries of the European Union between 2025 and 2100, according to the latest projections from Eurostat.
This translates to a predicted decrease of 53.0 million people in the EU by the start of the next century. The decline would be steeper without immigration.
At the same time, the population will continue to age with those over-65 growing in number from about 95 million today to 109 million in 2100. The number under 18 is project to fall from about 80 million now, to 60 million at the end of the century. This means the over-65s will outnumber children by almost two-to-one.
In 2025, the EU population was estimated at 451.8 million, having resumed its growth trend in 2022, after the COVID-19 pandemic disruption in 2021. Looking ahead, the population is projected to continue to increase over the next three years, peaking at 453.3 million in 2029, before gradually declining to 398.8 million by 2100.
The projected change will not be uniformly distributed as some countries will have larger populations in 2100 compared to 2025, while most will see declines.
Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Greece are projected to record the largest declines, all above 30pc [2].
Meanwhile, the total fertility rate for 2024 was 1.34 [3] live births per woman in the EU, down from 1.38 in 2023. This is the lowest rate since 2001, the first year for which the EU figure is available. Replacement level is 2.1.
In 2024, 3.55 million babies were born in the EU, a 3.3% decrease from the 3.67 million in 2023.