The number of inpatient beds in public acute hospitals will need to increase by at least 40 per cent by 2040, reflecting continued increases in the population, particularly at older ages.

That’s according to a new Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI) report.

The research found that the rising demand for hospital services is largely driven by population growth and ageing. Ireland’s population is projected to increase from 5.3 million in 2023 to between 5.9 and 6.3 million by 2040, with the range reflecting differing assumptions on future migration trends. Importantly, the number of people aged 65 years and over will increase from 1 in 7 of the population in 2023 to 1 in 5 by 2040, only 15 years from today. This age group are particularly high users of hospital services, accounting for over 60 per cent of inpatient bed days in 2023.

A recent paper by the Iona Institute showed that a decline in religion has a knock on effect on marriage and fertility rates as people of faith tend to have more children than others. This means that as the influence of religion in Irish life wanes, the trend of an ageing population will accelerate.