Ireland’s population could grow to between 6 million and 7.59 million by the year 2065, according to projections released by the Department of Finance. The vast majority will be immigration-driven, especially in the case of the upper scenarios. By the 2040s, the CSO has estimated that deaths in Ireland will outnumber births. In the first quarter of this year, births to Irish citizens were already outnumbered by deaths of Irish citizens. Over 30 percent of births were to non-nationals.

The Department’s ‘Future Forty’ paper looks at potential demographic changes over the next forty years, “given certain assumptions regarding migration, fertility and mortality rates”.

The latest CSO data put the population of the Republic at 5.6 million.

Ireland’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has fallen from close to 2.6 births per woman 40 years ago, to 1.9 births per woman 20 years ago, to 1.53 births per woman in 2023. A level of 2.1 is needed for a population to sustain itself.

This analysis presents three separate fertility scenarios over the time horizon, using the CSO’s baseline fertility projections as a central scenario according to which TFR is projected to gradually fall to 1.3 births per woman by 2038, before stabilising.

A higher scenario (where the TFR stabilises at 1.53 births per woman), and a lower scenario (where the TFR declines further to 1.2 births per woman) are also considered.

However, since 2023, the TFR has already fallen to 1.50 in 2024.