The long-feared “population bomb” may not go off, according to the authors of a new report that estimates that human numbers will peak lower and sooner than previously forecast.

The study, commissioned by the Club of Rome, projects that on current trends the world population will reach a high of 8.8 billion before the middle of the century, then decline rapidly. The peak could come earlier still if governments take effective steps to raise average incomes and education levels.

While the demographic pressure on nature and the climate should start to ease, the authors caution that falling birth rates can also create new problems.

Countries such as Japan and South Korea are grappling with a shrinking workforce and tax base while also experiencing greater stress on healthcare associated with an ageing society.