The world population is expected to fall for the first time since the Black Death because of plummeting birth rates, a Lancet study has found.

Women would need to have 2.1 children each on average to maintain population growth, known as the “total fertility rate”, and as of 2021 it stood at 2.23 worldwide.

But experts say it is on a persistently downward trend, having fallen from 4.84 in 1950, and researchers predict it will decrease to 1.83 in 2050 and 1.59 by 2100.

It means that in 2050, 155 of 204 countries will have birth rates lower than required to sustain the population size.

The UK, like other high-income countries, has a fertility rate lower than the average, at just 1.49 in 2021.

It has fallen from 2.19 in 1950 and will continue to decrease to 1.38 and 1.30 in the next 25 and 75 years, the researchers said.

It will mean the current population of around 67 million becomes increasingly unbalanced toward older generations before falling as the eldest people die, unless there is migration.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2024/03/21/worlds-population-to-fall-for-first-time-since-black-death/