Ireland’s ageing demographics will place increasing pressure on the health service and on public finances, [1] with thousands of extra hospital beds needed, tens of thousands of long-term residential care beds, and hundreds of extra GPs and practice nurses.
That’s according to the latest report from the ESRI.
Ireland’s fertility rate is now only 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1. The ESRI report assumes a fertility rate of 1.65 going forward for reasons not explained.
The Institute previously estimated that by 2040 Ireland will require an additional 5,091-7,780 public hospital beds, 20,695-27,207 long-term residential care beds, 943-1,211 General Practitioners (GPs) and 761-868 General Practice Nurses (GPNs) to meet growing demand arising from a growing and ageing population.
The latest report brings together evidence on projected demand, capacity and expenditure requirements, and considers what the system might need to remain sustainable.
It notes that even though Ireland’s population is relatively young, it already has one of the highest proportions of health and social care spending in Europe. Yet, expenditure requirements “are expected to increase significantly in the coming years”.
Report author Sheelah Connolly said while Ireland has begun to plan for higher health and social care demand, “demographic change will require sustained action”