GE 16 saw a number of prominent socially liberal politicians lose their seats. Alan Shatter, Aodhán Ó Ríordáin, Jerry Buttimer, James Reilly,
Alex White and Anne Ferris each took very public positions in favour of gay marriage and abortion during the last term, and each lost a seat in one of the most socially liberal constituencies in the country.

In contrast, the three TDs who publicly opposed the marriage referendum breezed back into Leinster House. John McGuinness was first past the post in Carlow/Kilkenny, Michael Healy Rae topped the poll in Kerry, and Mattie McGrath coasted home not too far behind the all-conquering Michael Lowry. Meanwhile almost three quarters of the incoming Fianna Fail parliamentary party is on record as favouring the retention of the 8^thAmendment. The next Government will almost certainly be much more pro-life and less hostile to people of faith than the last.

The obvious exception to the trend is the fate of the sitting Renua candidates. They all missed out, though their collective failure is mitigated by two factors inapplicable to the social liberals mentioned above: they did not have a well-established and state-funded party machine behind them and, unlike the Government parties, they did not have the support of the mainstream media (quite the opposite in the case of Lucinda Creighton, in particular).

What general conclusions can be drawn from GE 16?

First, the electorate are not interested in rewarding liberal policies and politicians, not even the electorate in liberal constituencies.

Second, despite the fact that influential sections of the media attempted to present abortion and the secularising of the education system as important election issues, the electorate clearly didn’t agree. The vast majority electorate at General Election time are unperturbed by the fact that Irish hospitals cannot perform abortions. A Sunday Independent poll conducted a few weeks out from GE 16 found that a vanishingly small minority of people considered abortion an important election issue.

Third, publicly proclaiming that you are pro-life, or indeed in favour of traditional marriage is by no means a barrier to electoral success, and, if the very significant Fianna Fail gains are anything to go by, may actually be of genuine assistance outside of Dublin.

And fourth, if the political will is present to resist media-generated pressure to hold a referendum to repeal the 8^th Amendment, the Government parties will not be punished at the polls.