An important new study [1] explores the causes of falling birth rates and unsurprisingly finds multiple causes but with the decline of marriage and intimate relationships playing a big part.
The author, Tomáš Sobotka, is deputy director of the Vienna Institute of Demography and an internationally recognised expert on fertility and family change. He describes the present fall in fertility as unusually widespread, deep and persistent. He says the fall has been deeper and fasted than anticipated. Ireland’s fertility rate is now 1.5, well below replacement level.
There is no single cause. Instead, several economic, social and cultural trends are working together. One of the most important is the growing number of young adults who are not marrying or forming intimate relationships. This “relationship recession” is contributing directly to fewer births.
Growing numbers of people in their twenties, thirties and forties are not in a romantic relationship or married. Since most children are born within stable relationships, this inevitably affects birth rates.
Deliberately choosing not to have kids has also become more common and socially acceptable. The traditional expectation that most people will eventually be parents is weakening, while more young adults are uncertain whether they want children at all.
Postponing parenthood creates a further difficulty. As more couples delay trying for a child until their mid-thirties or later, more will experience age-related infertility. Assisted reproduction cannot fully compensate for the loss of the reproductive years.
Digital technology may also be changing relationships. Studies suggest that increased internet use is associated with less face-to-face socialising and fewer intimate relationships. Sobotka warns that the wider adoption of AI may bring further disruption to employment, social relations and family life.
One recent analysis cited in the paper points to young people’s “crushing sense that the future is too uncertain” for the lifelong commitment of parenthood.
Economic uncertainty is also part of the fertility decline. People who are worried about employment or income are more likely to postpone major life decisions, including marriage and parenthood. Yet economics cannot explain everything: birth rates have often failed to recover even during periods of economic growth and falling unemployment.
Housing costs also matter, although their effects are not always straightforward. High rents and unaffordable homes can delay family formation. On the other hand, rising property values may encourage births among homeowners by making them feel wealthier and more financially secure.
Expectations about the future are equally important. Anxiety about war, political instability, inequality or climate change can reduce both the desire and the intention to have children. The study describes a broader crisis of confidence among young adults, many of whom doubt that their children would enjoy a better life than they have.
Fertility also tends to fall when women, especially those who are educated and employed, experience inequality within the home, according to the paper. If women have the same responsibilities as men at work but continue to perform most childcare and household tasks, marriage and motherhood can become less attractive.
Sobotka’s study [1] is therefore sceptical about policies designed to increase fertility. Financial incentives may help at the margins, but they cannot by themselves provide affordable housing, secure employment, equal relationships or a suitable partner with whom to start a family.