The latest poll on same-sex marriage
published in The Irish Times yesterday convinces me more than ever that a
referendum on the matter would lose if the campaign is even remotely fair and
balanced.

The poll showed 53pc support for a change to
the definition of marriage, but that is down a massive 20 points compared with a
Red C poll in February and around 10 points compared with other polls on the
matter.

Polls in the run-up to the children’s rights
referendum showed the amendment had roughly 70pc support to only 4pc against. On
the day itself, the vote turned out to be 58pc in favour and 42pc
against.

The fact is that when a referendum campaign
kicks off people change their minds quickly. The media-favoured position starts
off ahead, often way ahead, because that is all most people have heard on the
matter.

But when they start to hear another point of
view, things change.

Even in those American states that recently
voted in favour of gay marriage, the pro-gay marriage side started out with a
huge lead but on the day itself, despite massively outspending their opponents,
won by only around 4pc on average.

Of course, in all previous 32 votes on the
matter they lost.

If we have a referendum on same-sex marriage
in this country and the gay marriage side starts out at only 53pc public
support, they will surely lose.