In a previous blog, I analysed the latest marriage data [1] from the CSO. What stands out is the fact that (not counting the Covid years), our marriage rate last year dropped to just 3.8 per thousand adults, the lowest level ever recorded.
Let’s take a closer look at what going on. For a start, the population is ageing, meaning the number of people of typically marriageable age is declining as a share of all adults. This alone will reduce the marriage rate.
But when we zero in on those who are of typically marriageable age (20-40 years old), what is happening?
Well, the marriage rate among those in their early to mid-20s has dropped hugely in the v [2] alone. For males aged 20–24, the rate dropped from 4.1 to just 1.8 per 1,000, and for females in the same age group, from 8.1 to 2.6 per 1,000.
You might consider this a good thing, if you think getting married in your early to mid-20s is too soon.
But we have also seen a big decline in marriage rates among those in their mid to late-20s. Among males aged 25–29 it has dropped from 29.7 per 1,000 to 13.9 since 2014 [3], and among females in this age cohort from 39.8 to 21.8 per 1,000.
If marriage rates among those in their 20s are declining, then maybe there is a pickup by the time people reach their thirties? Yes, far more people marry in their 30s than in their 20s, but not by enough to increase marriage rates overall.
Among the 30–34 age cohort marriage rates have barely budged in the last ten years. Males experienced a slight decrease from 49.3 to 43.5 per 1,000, while females saw a marginal increase from 44.3 to 44.9 per 1,000.
For the 35–39 cohort, male marriage rates slightly decreased from 24.1 to 23.7 per 1,000, whereas female rates increased from 17.5 to 17.8 per 1,000.
Therefore, two things seem to be happening. First, people are waiting much longer to marry, but secondly, fewer people are marrying, full stop. We can expect this trend to continue. Fertility rates almost always follow marriage rates on a downward course and Ireland’s fertility rate is now just 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1.
These are awful trends if you care about the future of Irish society.